{"id":1047,"date":"2016-05-03T16:00:05","date_gmt":"2016-05-03T19:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/globalattitude.org.br\/e-o-fim-da-globalizacao\/"},"modified":"2023-03-10T10:02:51","modified_gmt":"2023-03-10T13:02:51","slug":"e-o-fim-da-globalizacao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/globalattitude.org.br\/en\/e-o-fim-da-globalizacao\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9 o fim da globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o?"},"content":{"rendered":"

China anunciou recentemente que no ano passado, pela primeira vez desde a abertura de sua economia ao mundo, no fim dos anos 70, as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es ca\u00edram em base anual. E isso n\u00e3o \u00e9 tudo. Em termos de valor , o com\u00e9rcio global diminuiu em 2015. A quest\u00e3o \u00e9: por qu\u00ea?
\nO com\u00e9rcio mundial caiu em 2009 tamb\u00e9m, mas a explica\u00e7\u00e3o era \u00f3bvia: o mundo estava vivendo uma grande contra\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB na \u00e9poca. No ano passado, por\u00e9m, a economia mundial cresceu respeit\u00e1veis 3%. Al\u00e9m disso, as barreiras comerciais n\u00e3o aumentaram significativamente em nenhum lugar e custos em transporte est\u00e3o reduzindo por conta do decl\u00ednio no pre\u00e7o do petr\u00f3leo.
\nO \u00cdndice de Seca do B\u00e1ltico (Baltic Dry Index<\/a>), que mede o custo de fretar navios de grande porte, os quais carregam a maior parte do com\u00e9rcio de longa dist\u00e2ncia, teve a sua maior baixa. Isso indica que os mercados n\u00e3o esperam por uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o, o que significa que os dados de 2015 podem anunciar uma nova era de desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o do com\u00e9rcio. A conclus\u00e3o \u00f3bvia \u00e9 a de que as for\u00e7as da globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e3o perdendo o g\u00e1s.
\nA situa\u00e7\u00e3o na China j\u00e1 diz tudo. Nas \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, ao se tornar uma das pot\u00eancias comerciais mais importantes do mundo, a China transformou o sistema de com\u00e9rcio global. Agora, o valor das importa\u00e7\u00f5es e exporta\u00e7\u00f5es ca\u00edram, embora o primeiro tenha diminu\u00eddo mais, devido \u00e0 queda dos pre\u00e7os das commodities mundiais.
\nOs pre\u00e7os das commodities s\u00e3o a chave para entender as t\u00eandencias comerciais ao longo das \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas. Quando estavam altos, levavam ao aumento do com\u00e9rcio – a ponto da participa\u00e7\u00e3o do com\u00e9rcio no PIB aumentar – resultando no inevit\u00e1vel progresso da globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o. Em 2012, por\u00e9m, os pre\u00e7os das commodities come\u00e7aram a cair, levando consigo o com\u00e9rcio.
\nExiste uma rela\u00e7\u00e3o direta entre a evolu\u00e7\u00e3o nos pre\u00e7os do com\u00e9rcio e das commodities. Dado que esta conex\u00e3o afeta todos os bens manufaturados que exigem insumos de mat\u00e9ria-prima, n\u00e3o h\u00e1 surpresa em saber que \u00e0 medida que os pre\u00e7os das commodities caem os do com\u00e9rcio global v\u00e3o pelo mesmo caminho.<\/p>\n

\"globaliz\"<\/a>

Efeito dos pre\u00e7os das commodities no com\u00e9rcio mundial<\/p><\/div>\n

Isso afeta tamb\u00e9m os volumes de com\u00e9rcio, pois pre\u00e7os mais altos de commodities for\u00e7am pa\u00edses industriais a aumentar o volume de suas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es para cobrir os custos do mesmo volume de importa\u00e7\u00f5es de mat\u00e9rias-primas. Vale lembrar que comida, combust\u00edvel e mat\u00e9ria-prima englobam um quarto do com\u00e9rcio mundial.
\nIsso n\u00e3o significa que globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o e com\u00e9rcio s\u00e3o a mesma coisa. A primeira possui muitas outras caracter\u00edsticas, como o surto das transa\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras entre fronteiras e turismo, interc\u00e2mbio de dados e outras atividades econ\u00f4micas, que t\u00eam alimentado o com\u00e9rcio, permitindo o surgimento de cadeias de valor globais onde diferentes etapas de um processo de produ\u00e7\u00e3o ocorrem em diferentes pa\u00edses.
\nMas esse fen\u00f4meno foi superestimado. De acordo com a Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Mundial do Com\u00e9rcio<\/a> (OMC), o valor externo acrescentado nas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es consiste em cerca de 15% para a maioria das grandes economias, como Estados Unido e Uni\u00e3o Europeia. Isso significa que cadeias de valor globais causam pouco impacto nestas grandes economias.
\nChina \u00e9 a \u00fanica exce\u00e7\u00e3o. Sua posi\u00e7\u00e3o como plataforma de montagem para os produtos no mundo significa que o pa\u00eds importa a maior parte dos elementos de maior valor agregado destes bens. Mas \u00e0 medida em que a estrutura industrial chinesa amadure\u00e7a, o pa\u00eds se aproximar\u00e1 mais dos Estados Unidos e Uni\u00e3o Europeia em termos de valor agregado, e n\u00e3o o contr\u00e1rio. Esta \u00e9 mais uma raz\u00e3o pela qual o com\u00e9rcio pode vir a diminuir em import\u00e2ncia.
\nA maioria das economias est\u00e3o mais abertas hoje do que h\u00e1 uma gera\u00e7\u00e3o atr\u00e1s, mas est\u00e1 ficando claro que a percep\u00e7\u00e3o de que a globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 uma for\u00e7a esmagadora e inexor\u00e1vel refletiu grande parte os efeitos colaterais do surto de commodities da \u00faltima d\u00e9cada. Se os pre\u00e7os se mantiverem baixos, como parece que ficar\u00e3o, a pr\u00f3xima d\u00e9cada pode chegar a ver o com\u00e9rcio global estagnar, com o padr\u00e3o de com\u00e9rcio “reequilibrando” economias emergentes e pot\u00eancias industriais.<\/p>\n

*Mat\u00e9ria original: Is this the end of globalization?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China anunciou recentemente que no ano passado, pela primeira vez desde a abertura de sua economia ao mundo, no fim dos anos 70, as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es ca\u00edram em base anual. E isso n\u00e3o \u00e9 tudo. Em termos de valor , o com\u00e9rcio global diminuiu em 2015. A quest\u00e3o \u00e9: por qu\u00ea? O com\u00e9rcio mundial caiu em […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1048,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opiniao","category-ultimas"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c9 o fim da globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o? - Instituto Global Attitude<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/globalattitude.org.br\/e-o-fim-da-globalizacao\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c9 o fim da globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o? - Instituto Global Attitude\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China anunciou recentemente que no ano passado, pela primeira vez desde a abertura de sua economia ao mundo, no fim dos anos 70, as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es ca\u00edram em base anual. E isso n\u00e3o \u00e9 tudo. Em termos de valor , o com\u00e9rcio global diminuiu em 2015. A quest\u00e3o \u00e9: por qu\u00ea? 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